Jun 20

Computer Models now Creating the News

Written by CCD News.

A Emperor Penguin dives into the water somewhere in Antarctica. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Though I've seen hundreds of articles that are about scientists using computer simulations to make the 'news cycle,' or worse, predict the future, this ridiculous piece of drivel is beyond the pale. Read why after the jump. From Emperor Penguins Threatened By Shrinking Kingdom:

Researchers studying the effects of climate change in Antarctica say shrinking sea ice means bad news for emperor penguins: an 81 percent reduction in the number of breeding pairs by 2100.

…snip…

The study’s authors relied on simulations from 20 computer climate models that assume moderate growth in greenhouse gas emissions.

Comments

# Gator 06-20-2012 15:56

April 13, 2012
“Emperor Penguin Numbers Double Previous Estimates

Emperor penguins in Antarctica are far more plentiful than previously thought, a study that used extremely high-resolution imagery snapped by satellites has revealed.

“It surprised us that we approximately doubled the population estimate,” said Peter Fretwell, a scientist with the British Antarctic Survey and lead author of a paper published today in the journal PLoS One.”

Did I hear there is a problem with the models...

www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJfx0d-mmIo

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# amirlach 06-20-2012 21:45

Sargent Schultz - "I know nothing, I am not here - I did not even get up this morning!" www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgcxGFmYyPs&feature=player_embedded

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# Tony 06-20-2012 17:06

So assuming 1+1=4, and then assuming further that 2+2=10 and 3+3=18, then 1+2+3 must equal 49. Start with assumptions. Continue with more assumptions and you end up with a load of male bovine excretion that makes the news.

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# anne 06-21-2012 01:21

Anyone noticed how they are now 'creating lies' that will happen so far in the future that none of us will be around to disprove it.

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# Curious George 06-23-2012 21:30

One of authors, Dr. Marika Holland, works with a Community Atmospheric Model 5.0, so I assume that CAM 5.0 was used to predict temperatures in year 2100. That model assumes that the latent heat of vaporization of water is a constant. In fact it varies by 10% between -50 and +50 degrees Celsius.

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