UAH Global Temperature Update for August, 2012: +0.34 deg. C

Written by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D..

The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for August (+0.34 °C) was up from July 2012 (+0.28 °C):

chart

Here are the monthly departures from the 30-year (1981-2010) average:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2012 1 -0.09 -0.06 -0.12 -0.13
2012 2 -0.11 -0.01 -0.21 -0.27
2012 3 +0.11 +0.13 +0.10 -0.10
2012 4 +0.30 +0.41 +0.19 -0.12
2012 5 +0.29 +0.44 +0.14 +0.03
2012 6 +0.37 +0.54 +0.20 +0.14
2012 7 +0.28 +0.45 +0.11 +0.33
2012 8 +0.34 +0.38 +0.31 +0.26

As a reminder, the most common reason for large month-to-month swings in global average temperature anomalies (departures from normal) is small fluctuations in the rate of convective overturning of the troposphere, discussed here.

Source

Comments  

 
Werner Brozek
# Werner Brozek 09-06-2012 19:28
With the UAH anomaly for August at 0.34, the average for the first eight months of the year is (-0.089 -0.111 + 0.111 + 0.299 + 0.289 + 0.369 + 0.28 + 0.34)/8 = 0.186. If the average stayed this way for the rest of the year, its ranking would be 7th. This compares with the anomaly in 2011 at 0.153 to rank it 9th for that year. On the other hand, if the rest of the year averaged the August value, which is more likely if the El Nino gets stronger, then 2012 would come in at 0.237 and it would rank 4th. 1998 was the warmest at 0.428. The highest ever monthly anomalies were in February and April of 1998 when it reached 0.66. In order for a new record to be set in 2012, the average for the last 4 months of the year would need to be 0.91. Since this is way above the highest monthly anomaly ever recorded, it is virtually impossible for 2012 to set a new record.
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