Global Cooling, Part 3 of 3
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December 31 2010
We are hearing that Great Britain is experiencing the coldest December in 1,000 years. We also know that atmospheric temperatures more or less stopped warming in 1998 and ocean heat content (the more important metric of the earth’s temperature) is steady or slightly falling. These measurements are markedly different than the forecasts of warming made by the International Panel on Climate Change, the group cited by most global warming proponents.
As discussed in Part II, what if these indications of cooling are just that: Signs of cooling? Since many (see here and here) are advocating cooling and desire to spend tremendous sums of money to make it happen, I must ask if this is a situation where we need to be careful what we wish for.
What might be the source of the cooling? Less energy from the sun.
When I was in meteorology school, before satellites measured the sun’s output from above the earth’s atmosphere, we were incorrectly taught about “the solar constant.” That is, the sun’s output was thought to be the same year after year, in spite of astronomers observing a variety of sunspot changes over the centuries.
Some thought the number of sunspots might affect the weather but they were generally outside the mainstream of scientific thinking.
Now, we know the sun’s output varies. Still, the IPCC has generally thought the effect of the sun’s changes on climate are minimal.
Looks like we are about to find out whether the IPCC's hypothesis is correct.
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Comments
Hilarious. So if we were to reduce the sun's output by 50% (or any other value) it wouldn't have any impact?
Happy 2011!
Where the H*ll do they think the change of seasons comes from??? The earth tilts on its axis, away from the sun to give us winter, towards the sun to give us summer. Basic grade school science.
The earth's axis of rotation in inclined to the plane of its orbit around the sun. As we go round the Sun each hemisphere has a turn at being nearer the Sun.
And if it did tilt, why would you think it would be noticable to us little creatures here on the surface. When the rotation of the earth at the equator is calculated to be over 1000 MPH, and that tilt would be very small in comparison and slow as it would happen over months!
Try this little experiment. Hold a classroom earth globe by its stand and spin the globe around. Now turn the stand to give the globe a tilt. Notice any torque? Now you may think that a change over six months would not be noticeable, but at the spring equinox that turning movement would be be at a maximum. I haven't done a calculation but I wouldn't be surprised if plumblines were just a little bit out and maybe ocean circulation would have a bit of slosh.
Russ,
If you have some scientific point to advance let's hear it. I was trying to correct Ralph's misunderstanding. This notion that the Earth tilts is a common misunderstanding. So we rotate at 1000mph at the equator, what is that speed at the North Pole, do I hear you say zero? Now what would be the speed of this tilt? The tropics are at 23 degrees so in six months the Earth would have to tilt through 46 degrees. That's about one eighth of the circumference, or about 3000 miles. Now 3000 miles in six months is about 16 miles a day, though the speed would be double at the equinox (and zero at the solstice) so 32 miles a day is about 1.4 miles per hour. Hey we are going to shift the entire Pacific ocean at 1.4 miles per hour and then stop it three months later. Good luck.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axial_tilt
"Over the course of an orbit, while the angle of the axial tilt doesn't change, the orientation of a planet's axial tilt moves through 360 degrees (one complete orbit around the Sun), relative to the Sun, causing the seasons."
If earths axis of rotation was shifting so wildly it would be impossible to have geostationary orbiting satilites.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geostationary_orbit
amirlach,
That's exactly what I said in my first message. I was trying to point out to Ralph his error and give Russ a little idea of how we can exclude this false premise with a simple calculation.
Russ,
What was my error? Was it a lack of politeness or something scientific? If it was the first I'll apologise. If it's the second, let's see what you have to say.
Russ,
When you are in a hole it's time to stop digging.
Didn't I say the Earth tilts on its axis?
Inclined=tilt.
tilt (tlt)
v. tilt·ed, tilt·ing, tilts
1. To slope; incline.
www.thefreedictionary.com/tilt
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