First Estimate of Solar Cycle 25 Amplitude – may be the smallest in over 300 years

Written by David Archibald, Watts up with that?.

latest shot[h/t to Gator] Predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 was a big business. Jan Janssens provides the most complete table of Solar Cycle 24 predictions at: http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24.html

Prediction activity for Solar Cycle 24 seemed to have peaked in 2007. In year before, Dr David Hathaway of NASA made the first general estimate of Solar Cycle 25 amplitude:

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/10may_longrange/

Based on the slowing of the Sun’s “Great Conveyor Belt”, he predicted that

“The slowdown we see now means that Solar Cycle 25, peaking around the year 2022, could be one of the weakest in centuries.” He is very likely to have got the year wrong in that Solar Cycle 25 is unlikely to start until 2025.

In this paper: http://www.probeinternational.org/Livingston-penn-2010.pdf,

Livingston and Penn provided the first hard estimate of Solar Cycle 25 amplitude based on a physical model. That estimate is 7, which would make it the smallest solar cycle for over 300 years.

Read rest…

Comments  

 
Gator
# Gator 01-26-2012 17:58
I have been scouring the net for over a year, looking for a worthy C25 prediction, and this is what I was afraid I would find.

Not looking forward to my 'Colden' Years!
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amirlach
# amirlach 01-26-2012 22:24
The upside will be watching all these alarmist claims go up in flames. :D

*Que the flaming whale like creature*...
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anne
# anne 01-27-2012 02:06
sovereignindependent.co.uk/2012/01/26/green-has-become-fabian-socialist-red/ What will our future really hold if the fraud continues.
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Joker
# Joker 01-27-2012 02:40
Thanks for that link Anne, a very good read.

What always amazes me is that the warmists and Greenies etc must have known all along that the sun drives everything and sooner or later it would start to get quieter as it has done in the past and as a result the earth would cool. But they carried on anyway hoping that no one would notice.

Puzzling aint it.

Keep a smiling
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Gator
# Gator 01-27-2012 08:48
Hey anne! The Fabian Society is something I have been reading about for a couple of years now.

"The Fabian Society Stained-Glass Window[10], commissioned by George Bernard Shaw[11], shows Shaw and Sidney Webb[12] hammering the world into their chosen form."

This 'reshaping' of the world includes rewriting and distorting our history, about which Orwell warned us. The progressives in America started rewriting our history over a century ago and yes, as the author said, they are grinding our society down to their desired form.

To change a world, you must change its history. That is why 'NewHistory' goes back and smears great leaders who espoused anti-leftist views. Leaders like Churchill, Washington, Jefferson, Reagan and so on. I have had to re-educate myself in my adult life, so much of what I was taught in school, and hear today is absolutely false. And for a purpose, for an agenda.

Today the left accuses the right of being 'anti-science' as another way of reshaping the world. Nothing could be furhter from the truth. Capitalism has spawned more scientific innovation than all other forms of society combined. We are for using modern energy sources and have no superstitions regarding fossil fuels or nuclear power. We do not pretend to know the origin of the universe, or the intricate workings of every detail of this planet.

Beware those who claim ultimate authority, and starve them of power.
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anne
# anne 01-28-2012 00:52
Hi Gator, Joker, I have tried to re-educate myself on a great deal, I am in my mid 40s now and read Animal Farm and 1984, plus a few essays of Orwell when I was 15-16 as part of my exam curriculum, I really didn't understand it fully then,obviously not had any life experience really. I watch the youngsters, and some older people, 'occupy everywhere' shouting for capitalism to end and I see my 'idealistic self' at 16. When I first heard of AGW I sincerely believed it was happening, I often wondered how bad India and Africa would be, having been and stayed there, funnily enough I thought they were talking about changes in the sun output, not CO2,I think my interest in botany saved me from the con and took it from there. Read and study everything, that would always be my advice to young people.
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