First Estimate of Solar Cycle 25 Amplitude – may be the smallest in over 300 years
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January 26 2012
[h/t to Gator] Predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 was a big business. Jan Janssens provides the most complete table of Solar Cycle 24 predictions at: http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24.html
Prediction activity for Solar Cycle 24 seemed to have peaked in 2007. In year before, Dr David Hathaway of NASA made the first general estimate of Solar Cycle 25 amplitude:
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/10may_longrange/
Based on the slowing of the Sun’s “Great Conveyor Belt”, he predicted that
“The slowdown we see now means that Solar Cycle 25, peaking around the year 2022, could be one of the weakest in centuries.” He is very likely to have got the year wrong in that Solar Cycle 25 is unlikely to start until 2025.
In this paper: http://www.probeinternational.org/Livingston-penn-2010.pdf,
Livingston and Penn provided the first hard estimate of Solar Cycle 25 amplitude based on a physical model. That estimate is 7, which would make it the smallest solar cycle for over 300 years.
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Comments
Not looking forward to my 'Colden' Years!
*Que the flaming whale like creature*...
What always amazes me is that the warmists and Greenies etc must have known all along that the sun drives everything and sooner or later it would start to get quieter as it has done in the past and as a result the earth would cool. But they carried on anyway hoping that no one would notice.
Puzzling aint it.
Keep a smiling
"The Fabian Society Stained-Glass Window[10], commissioned by George Bernard Shaw[11], shows Shaw and Sidney Webb[12] hammering the world into their chosen form."
This 'reshaping' of the world includes rewriting and distorting our history, about which Orwell warned us. The progressives in America started rewriting our history over a century ago and yes, as the author said, they are grinding our society down to their desired form.
To change a world, you must change its history. That is why 'NewHistory' goes back and smears great leaders who espoused anti-leftist views. Leaders like Churchill, Washington, Jefferson, Reagan and so on. I have had to re-educate myself in my adult life, so much of what I was taught in school, and hear today is absolutely false. And for a purpose, for an agenda.
Today the left accuses the right of being 'anti-science' as another way of reshaping the world. Nothing could be furhter from the truth. Capitalism has spawned more scientific innovation than all other forms of society combined. We are for using modern energy sources and have no superstitions regarding fossil fuels or nuclear power. We do not pretend to know the origin of the universe, or the intricate workings of every detail of this planet.
Beware those who claim ultimate authority, and starve them of power.
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